Stoners worldwide obtained phrase Thursday of a stunning announcement that is all however sure to elicit a cacophony of quietly mumbled expressions of shock: Snoop Dogg, patron saint of marijuana, mentioned that he is formally giving up weed.
The DeFi market isn’t certain, although, if Snoop—the rapper, actor, and famous crypto enthusiast—will stand by the general public assertion issued today, and actually, completely, lay his rolling papers to relaxation. So, some degens are actually betting cryptocurrency on which manner the hazy smoke will blow.
A guess on crypto predictions market Polymarket, opened simply minutes after Snoop’s declaration, is presently asking gamblers to wager on whether or not the entertainer will smoke once more in 2023. At writing, the guess, which can keep lively till midnight on New 12 months’s Eve, has but to garner a number of motion—although the order e book has a rising stack of restrict orders lined up, suggesting some curiosity across the subject.
Whereas odds on the guess presently sit at even cash, at two factors earlier at present, betting exercise shot the percentages of “Sure” as much as 73%—that means that at these factors, a guess that Snoop would really preserve his phrase—and punt the blunt—supplied considerably better returns than a wager that he’d break his vow.
However the matter isn’t fairly as simple as whether or not Snoop will break his vow. Questions, each philosophical and technical, abound.
When the rapper proclaimed at present that, “After a lot consideration and dialog with my household, I’ve determined to surrender smoke,” what precisely did he imply by smoke?
Was he swearing off all weed merchandise, or simply those who contain inhaling fumes? Are edibles absolved? Tinctures? Hand lotions? The place do vapes fall on the spectrum—should the high-quality line between combustion and vaporization be consulted right here? Are aerosol chemists about to have their second?
These questions don’t solely apply to Snoop; additionally they apply to the overseers of the Polymarket guess. The wager solely asks whether or not Snoop will “smoke” earlier than New 12 months’s. If he takes a success from a large bong vape on the entrance garden of the White Home on Thanksgiving, will degens who wagered their hard-earned tokens on “Sure” be ignored within the chilly?
DeFi oracle community UMA is tasked with resolving the Snoopgate guess. The high-quality print of the wager is thus: “The decision supply for this market might be statements from Snoop Dogg and/or a consensus of credible reporting.”
However what if Snoop smokes in secret? What if he stops going outdoors? If a blunt is smoked in an LA mansion and nobody is there to scent it, has the magic dragon actually been puffed? In a real and worthy check of oracle networks’ capacity to bridge sensible contracts to the true world, some gamblers are about to search out out.
Edited by Andrew Hayward